Pair #7742

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 362347

YES ask: 0.0370
NO ask: 0.9680
Last: 0.0370

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3769

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy is the outright or tied leader after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 in R1 does not imply leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3480
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue