Pair #7737

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 49359

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2, he has completed two rounds and must have made the cut (which is determined after R2). The leader cannot have missed the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply leading after R2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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