Pair #7732

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 237904

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:13Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 5 of the overall tournament, McIlroy must have made the cut. You cannot finish top 5 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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