Pair #7726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 115037

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:13Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 10 of the overall tournament, McIlroy must have made the cut. You cannot finish top 10 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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