Pair #7720

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 90935

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 20 in the Masters overall (after all rounds), he must have made the cut to play in rounds 3 and 4. Therefore finishing top 20 necessarily implies making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

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