Pair #7717

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3383

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1 of the Masters (could win another major entirely, or win the Masters from outside the top 20 after R1). Finishing top 20 in R1 of the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue