Pair #7715

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3769

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require being top 10 in Round 1 of the Masters (could win another major, or win the Masters from outside the top 10 after R1). Being top 10 in R1 of the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.96% PROFITABLE

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