Pair #7714

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open — not necessarily the Masters, so making the Masters cut is not required. Winning the Masters would require making the cut, but winning any major does not. And making the Masters cut does not imply winning a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -58.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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