Pair #7713

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 362347

YES ask: 0.0370
NO ask: 0.9680
Last: 0.0370

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters from behind). Leading R1 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 144.66% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.6170
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +140.34% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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