Pair #7712

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 49359

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 2 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R2). Leading after R2 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 11.19% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +6.90% PROFITABLE

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