Pair #7711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3383

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (final results) does not necessitate finishing top 20 in Round 1 of the Masters specifically — a player can finish top 10 overall without being top 20 after round 1. And finishing top 20 in Round 1 of the Masters does not necessitate finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -87.75% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -91.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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