Pair #7709

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3769

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the final Masters standings does not require finishing top 10 after Round 1 specifically. A player can be outside the top 10 after Round 1 and still finish top 10 overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -73.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -77.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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