Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI
The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:32Z
Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. Implication holds in one direction only.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-98.12%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.8400
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-102.33%
BELOW HURDLE