Pair #7708

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39494

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. Implication holds in one direction only.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8000 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T15:21:22Z

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