Pair #7707

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 362347

YES ask: 0.0370
NO ask: 0.9680
Last: 0.0370

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 at the Masters. Leading after Round 1 does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 135.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8770
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +131.04% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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