Pair #7706

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 37053

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 49359

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:13:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 2 at the Masters. Leading after Round 2 does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -81.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -85.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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