Pair #7686

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 594313

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9590
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6962

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:53Z

Reasoning: If Rahm leads after Round 1, he is ranked 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not require leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3390
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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