Pair #7681

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1481

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6962

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:53Z

Reasoning: If Rahm finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily also finishes top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not require top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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