Pair #7679

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 594313

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9590
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1481

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:53Z

Reasoning: If Rahm leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 1, which is within the top 5. However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not require leading — he could be 2nd through 5th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1790
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue