Pair #7674

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 77668

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 41772

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5700
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:34Z

Reasoning: If Rahm finishes in the top 5 of the full tournament, he must have made the cut to play all four rounds. Making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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