Pair #7660

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 130972

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 41772

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5700
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 20 of the Masters, Rahm must complete all four rounds, which requires making the cut. Therefore finishing top 20 logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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