Pair #7657

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 9610

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate finishing as the top European at the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters but another European could... actually if Rahm wins the Masters he IS the top European finisher there). But again, the major win could be at a different tournament entirely, so no logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.93% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue