Pair #7656

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17848

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55873

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 (even the Masters) does not necessarily mean Rahm is the top LIV golfer at the Masters — he could win the Masters outright but another LIV golfer could theoretically... wait, if Rahm wins the Masters he would be the top LIV golfer there. However, winning a major could be at a different event. And winning the Masters does imply being top LIV golfer at the Masters. But the antecedent is winning ANY major, not specifically the Masters, so no strict logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 9.76% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +5.45% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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