Pair #7655

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3TOP5-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5 in Round 3?

Series: KXPGAR3TOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-11T23:00:00Z
Volume: 579

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) after the first 3 rounds of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require being top 5 after Round 3 at the Masters (could win another major entirely, or win the Masters from outside top 5 after Round 3). Finishing top 5 after Round 3 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

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