Pair #7654

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6962

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters after a slow start). Finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -38.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -42.80% BELOW HURDLE

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