Pair #7653

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 41772

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5700
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship — not necessarily the Masters. So winning a major does not imply making the cut at the Masters. Making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -43.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -48.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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