Pair #7652

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 594313

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9590
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win another major, or win the Masters without leading after Round 1). Leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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