Pair #7651

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JRAH

The Masters: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1481

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters after a poor Round 1). And finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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