Pair #7642

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 5097

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CGOT

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 7252

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:54Z

Reasoning: The top US golfer rule requires completing the full tournament, which implies making the cut. However, making the cut does not guarantee finishing as top US golfer. Confidence is medium because the rules say 'complete the full tournament' rather than explicitly referencing the cut, but completing the tournament logically requires having made the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

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