Pair #7628

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 5097

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate being top US golfer at The Masters (could win a different major, or a non-US golfer could beat him at The Masters). Being top US golfer at The Masters doesn't mean he won any major. No implication either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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