Pair #7627

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 123493

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate a top 5 at The Masters specifically (he could win a different major). And finishing top 5 at The Masters does not mean he won it. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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