Pair #7626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CGOT

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 7252

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: If Gotterup wins a major in 2026, it could be one of the other three majors (not the Masters), so he would not necessarily make the cut at the Masters. And making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.90% BELOW HURDLE

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