Pair #7625

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 367549

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of the Masters. The major win could be at a different event, and R1 leading does not guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.63% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9580
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +3.35% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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