Pair #7624

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 75751

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 does not require winning or finishing top 20 at the Masters specifically — Gotterup could win a different major. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -46.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -50.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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