Pair #7623

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 5097

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Masters does not logically necessitate being the top US golfer (other Americans could finish higher). And being the top US golfer does not require a top 10 overall finish, nor does it say anything about the other majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -43.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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