Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CHG
The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 123493
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors including the Masters means a top 10 at the Masters, but not necessarily top 5. And top 5 at the Masters does not imply top 10 at all other majors.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-17.81%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-22.02%
BELOW HURDLE