Pair #7622

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 123493

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors including the Masters means a top 10 at the Masters, but not necessarily top 5. And top 5 at the Masters does not imply top 10 at all other majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -22.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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