Pair #7620

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 367549

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of the Masters. One can finish top 10 without ever leading R1, and leading R1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -10.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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