Pair #7619

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 75751

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: If Gotterup finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -92.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -97.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue