Pair #7617

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6184887

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Gotterup wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 123493

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily in the top 5. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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