Pair #7616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6184887

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CGOT

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 7252

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:11:09Z

Reasoning: If Gotterup wins the Masters, he must have completed all four rounds, which means he necessarily made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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