Pair #7608

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 170378

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 751

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:45Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa is the outright leader after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 5 (being #1 is within top 5). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean he is the sole leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0870
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue