Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CMOR
Will Collin Morikawa finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 2856
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR
Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:45Z
Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes as the top US golfer, he must have competed in the Masters. The reverse does not hold — competing does not guarantee he finishes as top US golfer.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A