Pair #7605

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 170378

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR

Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:45Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa leads after Round 1, he must have competed in the Masters. The reverse does not hold — competing does not necessitate leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7970
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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