Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CMOR
Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22507
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CMOR
The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 112717
YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.6800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:23Z
Reasoning: To finish in the top 5 of the Masters, Morikawa must complete all four rounds, which requires making the cut. Making the cut does not imply a top 5 finish. The implication goes only one way: top 5 finish → made the cut.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.6100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A