Pair #7594

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 111144

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 112717

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:23Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 20 of the Masters, Morikawa must play all four rounds, which requires making the cut. Making the cut does not imply a top 20 finish — he could make the cut and finish outside the top 20. The implication goes only one way: top 20 finish → made the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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