Pair #7591

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 2856

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:23Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Masters. Even if it were The Masters, winning the tournament as the overall champion guarantees being the top US golfer, but winning a different major does not imply anything about The Masters finish. Conversely, being the top US golfer at The Masters does not imply winning a major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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