Pair #7590

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 112717

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessarily mean winning the Masters specifically — he could win the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open Championship, in which case missing the Masters cut is still possible. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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