Pair #7589

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17962

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 170378

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters. He could win a different major or win the Masters without leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.59% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9860
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -1.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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