Pair #7588

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 751

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters specifically. He could win a different major or win the Masters from outside the R1 top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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