Pair #7587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 2856

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not guarantee Morikawa is the top US golfer at the Masters — another US golfer could finish higher. And being top US golfer at the Masters does not imply top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -10.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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