Pair #7586

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 112717

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: To finish top 10 in the Masters (one of the 4 majors), Morikawa must complete all rounds, which requires making the cut. So finishing top 10 in all 4 majors implies making the cut at the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -102.97% BELOW HURDLE

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